Takeaways from this week’s Breaking Smart newsletter, Betting the Spread on Inexorables:

  • Try multiple ultra short-term bets around a shared assumption. 
  • Don’t stick with something you don’t find valuable just so you “aren’t a quitter.”
  • Constantly question whether or not the next step is what will produce the best results. 
  • Bet the spread, then switch between parallel bets as data changes. Work isn’t the horse races. You can change bets whenever you want. 
  • There is a difference between unfocused dabbling and betting the spread around a central inexorable trend. That difference is that learning and outcomes around that single trend compound. Unfocused dabbling doesn’t.